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Business
24 events
Events
Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
September 30
85%
Yes
No
August 31
44%
Yes
No
July 31
13%
Yes
No
$26K Vol.
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
8–11B
35%
Yes
No
17–20B
21%
Yes
No
<5B
17%
Yes
No
No IPO by December 31, 2027
14%
Yes
No
$20K Vol.
+ Combo
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Chance
16%
Yes
16¢
No
85¢
$93K Vol.
Deepseek IPO by...?
March 31, 2027
75%
Yes
No
September 30, 2027
60%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
57%
Yes
No
June 30, 2027
47%
Yes
No
$8K Vol.
+ Combo
US recession by end of 2026?
Chance
12%
Yes
12¢
No
88¢
$1.7M Vol.
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
C3.ai
35%
Yes
No
Lucid
34%
Yes
No
Workhorse
30%
Yes
No
Beyond Meat
27%
Yes
No
$220K Vol.
GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $4.00
77%
Yes
No
↑ $5.50
75%
Yes
No
↑ $6.00
67%
Yes
No
↓ $3.75
65%
Yes
No
$8K Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAI
30%
Yes
No
Google
24%
Yes
No
Moonshot
13%
Yes
No
xAI
13%
Yes
No
$85K Vol.
GPU rental prices (H100) hit___ in 2026?
↑ $2.75
97%
Yes
No
↓ $2.00
62%
Yes
No
↑ $3.50
59%
Yes
No
↓ $2.25
55%
Yes
No
$5K Vol.
Shein IPO Closing Market Cap Above __?
↑ 200B HKD
89%
Yes
No
↑ 250B HKD
68%
Yes
No
↑ 300B HKD
56%
Yes
No
↑ 400B HKD
28%
Yes
No
$1K Vol.
+ Combo
US bank failure by December 31, 2026?
Chance
73%
Yes
73¢
No
28¢
$5K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Chance
30%
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$66K Vol.
+ Combo
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Chance
83%
Yes
83¢
No
18¢
$109K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Chance
30%
Yes
30¢
No
71¢
$302K Vol.
+ Combo
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?
Chance
4%
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
$97K Vol.
Richest person on December 31, 2026?
Elon Musk
95%
Yes
No
Warren Buffett
1%
Yes
No
Larry Page
1%
Yes
No
Sergey Brin
1%
Yes
No
$1.9M Vol.
+ Combo
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
Chance
56%
Yes
56¢
No
45¢
$60K Vol.
GPU rental prices (B200) hit___ in 2026?
↓ $5.50
92%
Yes
No
↓ $5.00
87%
Yes
No
↓ $4.50
72%
Yes
No
↓ $4.00
60%
Yes
No
$24K Vol.
Which banks will fail by end of 2026?
Deutsche Bank
4%
Yes
No
JPMorgan Chase
3%
Yes
No
BNP Paribas
3%
Yes
No
US Bank
3%
Yes
No
$69K Vol.
+ Combo
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Chance
60%
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$120K Vol.
Reformation IPO Closing Market Cap
$800M-$1B
46%
Yes
No
$1B-$1.2B
45%
Yes
No
No IPO before October 2026
43%
Yes
No
$1.4B-$1.6B
30%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
How high will Polymarket's mindshare go by December 31?
75%
95%
Yes
No
80%
74%
Yes
No
85%
31%
Yes
No
90%
13%
Yes
No
$11K Vol.
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
1.5T+
34%
Yes
No
1T–1.25T
16%
Yes
No
1.25T–1.5T
15%
Yes
No
No IPO by December 31, 2027
14%
Yes
No
$71K Vol.
Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap
No IPO before August 2026
99%
Yes
No
$900M–$1.1B
1%
Yes
No
$1.5B–$1.7B
1%
Yes
No
<$900M
1%
Yes
No
$72K Vol.
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