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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 26
100%
Yes
No
July 27
100%
Yes
No
July 28
100%
Yes
No
July 29
98%
Yes
No
$10.6M Vol.
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
July 31
100%
Yes
No
August 31
100%
Yes
No
August 15
100%
Yes
No
$5.3M Vol.
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 31
62%
Yes
No
August 14
52%
Yes
No
July 31
41%
Yes
No
July 24
35%
Yes
No
$5.9M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Chance
0%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$22.3M Vol.
+ Combo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Chance
24%
Yes
24¢
No
77¢
$49.0M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 31
10%
Yes
No
August 15
3%
Yes
No
$3.9M Vol.
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
6%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$67.8M Vol.
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
79%
Yes
No
No Head of State
6%
Yes
No
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Yes
No
Alireza Arafi
2%
Yes
No
$35.3M Vol.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
26%
Yes
No
September 30
21%
Yes
No
August 31
11%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$8.6M Vol.
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
December 31
35%
Yes
No
$4.1M Vol.
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 31
7%
Yes
No
$2.7M Vol.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
52%
Yes
No
Benjamin Netanyahu
35%
Yes
No
Naftali Bennett
7%
Yes
No
Avigdor Lieberman
4%
Yes
No
$30.3M Vol.
Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 31
29%
Yes
No
August 15
19%
Yes
No
July 31
5%
Yes
No
$25.2M Vol.
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
31%
Yes
No
December 31
21%
Yes
No
September 30
10%
Yes
No
August 31
4%
Yes
No
$21.2M Vol.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
88%
Yes
No
October 31
84%
Yes
No
September 30
69%
Yes
No
August 31
51%
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
15%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
9%
Yes
No
September 30, 2026
3%
Yes
No
August 31, 2026
1%
Yes
No
$18.9M Vol.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
83%
Yes
No
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
Yes
No
María Corina Machado
3%
Yes
No
No Head of State
1%
Yes
No
$94.7M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
December 31
5%
Yes
No
$14.2M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Chance
56%
Yes
56¢
No
45¢
$6.3M Vol.
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
32%
Yes
No
September 30
13%
Yes
No
August 31
7%
Yes
No
August 18
5%
Yes
No
$11.5M Vol.
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
93%
Yes
No
September 30, 2026
86%
Yes
No
August 31, 2026
56%
Yes
No
July 31, 2026
8%
Yes
No
$8.5M Vol.
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 15
7%
Yes
No
July 31
2%
Yes
No
$8.5M Vol.
Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?
December 31
20%
Yes
No
$1.4M Vol.
+ Combo
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Chance
10%
Yes
10¢
No
91¢
$23.3M Vol.
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