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All Economy
Economy
24 events
Events
Fed Decision in July?
No change
75%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
25%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
No
$121.0M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Chance
0%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$22.3M Vol.
Largest Company end of July?
Apple
76%
Yes
No
NVIDIA
23%
Yes
No
Alphabet
0%
Yes
No
Microsoft
0%
Yes
No
$4.9M Vol.
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
85%
Yes
No
1 (25 bps)
10%
Yes
No
2 (50 bps)
3%
Yes
No
3 (75 bps)
1%
Yes
No
$45.2M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Chance
56%
Yes
56¢
No
45¢
$6.3M Vol.
+ Combo
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Chance
76%
Yes
76¢
No
25¢
$5.0M Vol.
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
56%
Yes
No
No change
40%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
4%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
2%
Yes
No
$4.6M Vol.
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
49%
Yes
No
Apple
31%
Yes
No
Alphabet
14%
Yes
No
SpaceX
2%
Yes
No
$4.9M Vol.
Fed rate hike by...?
October Meeting
73%
Yes
No
September Meeting
68%
Yes
No
July Meeting
22%
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other
64%
Yes
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
32%
Yes
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Yes
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
0%
Yes
No
$631K Vol.
Fed rate cut by...?
December Meeting
15%
Yes
No
October Meeting
8%
Yes
No
September Meeting
4%
Yes
No
July Meeting
0%
Yes
No
$3.0M Vol.
Largest Company end of August?
NVIDIA
52%
Yes
No
Apple
42%
Yes
No
Alphabet
4%
Yes
No
Microsoft
0%
Yes
No
$294K Vol.
2nd Largest Company end of July?
NVIDIA
73%
Yes
No
Apple
21%
Yes
No
Alphabet
2%
Yes
No
Microsoft
0%
Yes
No
$544K Vol.
3rd Largest Company end of July?
Alphabet
100%
Yes
No
NVIDIA
0%
Yes
No
Apple
0%
Yes
No
Microsoft
0%
Yes
No
$336K Vol.
Bank of Japan Decision in July?
No change
99%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
1%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
0%
Yes
No
$365K Vol.
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other
73%
Yes
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
22%
Yes
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Yes
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Yes
No
$583K Vol.
Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Pause–Pause–Pause
76%
Yes
No
Other
22%
Yes
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
0%
Yes
No
$918K Vol.
Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?
$0.70-$0.80T
54%
Yes
No
<$0.70T
41%
Yes
No
$0.80-$0.90T
3%
Yes
No
$0.90-$1.00T
3%
Yes
No
$139K Vol.
July Inflation US - Annual
3.3%
37%
Yes
No
3.4%
33%
Yes
No
3.5%
20%
Yes
No
3.2%
5%
Yes
No
$124K Vol.
Fed Decision in October?
No change
61%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
24%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
10%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
2%
Yes
No
$363K Vol.
3rd Largest Company end of August?
Alphabet
84%
Yes
No
NVIDIA
10%
Yes
No
Apple
7%
Yes
No
Microsoft
0%
Yes
No
$85K Vol.
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August
No change
94%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
5%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
No
$70K Vol.
Bank of Japan Decision in September?
No change
77%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
24%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
No
$112K Vol.
Bank of Israel decision in August?
No Change
74%
Yes
No
25 bps cut
22%
Yes
No
50+ bps cut
3%
Yes
No
25 bps hike
2%
Yes
No
$38K Vol.
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