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All Politics
Politics
24 events
Events
Fed Decision in July?
No change
79%
Yes
No
25 bps increase
21%
Yes
No
50+ bps increase
0%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
0%
Yes
No
$124.4M Vol.
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
95%
Yes
No
Alesa Mengesha
2%
Yes
No
Gedion Timothewos
1%
Yes
No
Shimelis Abdisa
1%
Yes
No
$239.0M Vol.
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Yes
No
Marco Rubio
12%
Yes
No
Gavin Newsom
12%
Yes
No
Jon Ossoff
9%
Yes
No
$673.5M Vol.
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
43%
Yes
No
Marco Rubio
27%
Yes
No
Ron DeSantis
3%
Yes
No
Donald Trump
2%
Yes
No
$681.8M Vol.
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
19%
Yes
No
Jon Ossoff
13%
Yes
No
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
13%
Yes
No
Kamala Harris
9%
Yes
No
$1248.9M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Chance
0%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$22.3M Vol.
+ Combo
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Chance
24%
Yes
24¢
No
77¢
$49.0M Vol.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 31
10%
Yes
No
August 15
3%
Yes
No
$3.9M Vol.
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
64%
Yes
No
Flávio Bolsonaro
24%
Yes
No
Renan Santos
9%
Yes
No
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Yes
No
$116.4M Vol.
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
79%
Yes
No
No Head of State
6%
Yes
No
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Yes
No
Alireza Arafi
2%
Yes
No
$35.3M Vol.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
26%
Yes
No
September 30
21%
Yes
No
August 31
11%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$8.6M Vol.
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?
December 31
7%
Yes
No
$2.7M Vol.
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
52%
Yes
No
Benjamin Netanyahu
35%
Yes
No
Naftali Bennett
7%
Yes
No
Avigdor Lieberman
4%
Yes
No
$30.3M Vol.
Epstein client list released by...?
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$4.4M Vol.
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
220-239
39%
Yes
No
200-219
29%
Yes
No
240-259
20%
Yes
No
260-279
8%
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 31
29%
Yes
No
August 15
19%
Yes
No
July 31
5%
Yes
No
$25.2M Vol.
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
31%
Yes
No
Édouard Philippe
26%
Yes
No
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13%
Yes
No
Gabriel Attal
5%
Yes
No
$116.5M Vol.
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
31%
Yes
No
December 31
21%
Yes
No
September 30
10%
Yes
No
August 31
4%
Yes
No
$21.2M Vol.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
88%
Yes
No
October 31
84%
Yes
No
September 30
69%
Yes
No
August 31
51%
Yes
No
$1.7M Vol.
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
15%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
9%
Yes
No
September 30, 2026
3%
Yes
No
August 31, 2026
1%
Yes
No
$18.9M Vol.
+ Combo
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Chance
28%
Yes
28¢
No
72¢
$2.9M Vol.
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
83%
Yes
No
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
Yes
No
María Corina Machado
3%
Yes
No
No Head of State
1%
Yes
No
$94.7M Vol.
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
56%
Yes
No
No change
41%
Yes
No
25 bps decrease
4%
Yes
No
50+ bps decrease
2%
Yes
No
$4.7M Vol.
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?
December 31
5%
Yes
No
$14.2M Vol.
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