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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 31
28%
Yes
No
October 31
13%
Yes
No
August 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$227K Vol.
Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?
December 31, 2026
13%
Yes
No
$2.1M Vol.
+ Combo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Chance
0%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$958K Vol.
US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
August 31
2%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$872K Vol.
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
31%
Yes
No
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
30%
Yes
No
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
28%
Yes
No
Iran Reconstruction Funding
27%
Yes
No
$401K Vol.
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
December 31
94%
Yes
No
September 30
89%
Yes
No
$41K Vol.
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026
7%
Yes
No
September 30, 2026
2%
Yes
No
$6.1M Vol.
+ Combo
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
Chance
0%
Yes
0¢
No
100¢
$25K Vol.
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31
65%
Yes
No
September 30
38%
Yes
No
$226K Vol.
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027
89%
Yes
No
Switzerland
3%
Yes
No
Turkey
1%
Yes
No
US
1%
Yes
No
$2.8M Vol.
+ Combo
Nothing Ever Happens: July
Chance
78%
Yes
78¢
No
22¢
$78K Vol.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
50-74
46%
Yes
No
25-49
25%
Yes
No
75-99
18%
Yes
No
100+
11%
Yes
No
$24K Vol.
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
$82K Vol.
Will Russia enter Stinky by...?
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$111K Vol.
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
August 31
21%
Yes
No
July 31
6%
Yes
No
$23K Vol.
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
4%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$81K Vol.
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?
December 31, 2026
4%
Yes
No
$2.6M Vol.
Will Russia enter Moskovka by...?
July 31
2%
Yes
No
$71K Vol.
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 2027
43%
Yes
No
Netanyahu - Israel PM
26%
Yes
No
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
6%
Yes
No
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
5%
Yes
No
$112K Vol.
+ Combo
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Chance
12%
Yes
12¢
No
89¢
$3.2M Vol.
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 31
36%
Yes
No
August 31
8%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$949K Vol.
+ Combo
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
Chance
3%
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
$74K Vol.
Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel Macron
52%
Yes
No
Lula da Silva
37%
Yes
No
Ursula von der Leyen
17%
Yes
No
Elon Musk
9%
Yes
No
$195K Vol.
Will Russia enter Borova by...?
September 30
18%
Yes
No
$277K Vol.
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