Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

Question

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Accepted Answer

Currently 32% chance YES, based on live trading odds on PredictFi.

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

More from "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?"

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

More from "Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?"