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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland
22%
Yes
No
Qatar
11%
Yes
No
Syria
11%
Yes
No
Jordan
10%
Yes
No
$1.5M Vol.
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$2.8M Vol.
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 31
43%
Yes
No
August 15
24%
Yes
No
August 7
9%
Yes
No
July 31
2%
Yes
No
$7.5M Vol.
+ Combo
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Chance
22%
Yes
22¢
No
79¢
$882K Vol.
+ Combo
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Chance
3%
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
$1.2M Vol.
Iran invades Kuwait by...?
August 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$600K Vol.
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+
3%
Yes
No
40+
1%
Yes
No
50+
1%
Yes
No
80+
1%
Yes
No
$1.6M Vol.
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
6%
Yes
No
$21.7M Vol.
India strike on Pakistan by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
Yes
No
$976K Vol.
+ Combo
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Chance
4%
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
$39.2M Vol.
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 30
21%
Yes
No
July 31
20%
Yes
No
July 29
10%
Yes
No
July 26
1%
Yes
No
$2.5M Vol.
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30
31%
Yes
No
Switzerland
25%
Yes
No
Qatar
17%
Yes
No
Pakistan
9%
Yes
No
$3.3M Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30
81%
Yes
No
$1.1M Vol.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
September 30
6%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$28.9M Vol.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
September 30
6%
Yes
No
August 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$8.2M Vol.
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
13%
Yes
No
September 30
6%
Yes
No
$2.2M Vol.
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
24%
Yes
No
October 31
11%
Yes
No
August 31
11%
Yes
No
$3.2M Vol.
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by...?
December 31
13%
Yes
No
August 31
3%
Yes
No
$904K Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
$2.0M Vol.
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 31
89%
Yes
No
September 30
86%
Yes
No
August 31
6%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$224K Vol.
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
40%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$123.8M Vol.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
13%
Yes
No
October 31
6%
Yes
No
August 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$17.6M Vol.
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
50-74
92%
Yes
No
75-99
12%
Yes
No
<50
4%
Yes
No
100-124
1%
Yes
No
$213K Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
September 30
4%
Yes
No
$2.2M Vol.
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