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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 31
89%
Yes
No
September 30
86%
Yes
No
August 31
6%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$224K Vol.
US strike on Mexico by...?
December 31
12%
Yes
No
$3.4M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
36%
Yes
No
October 31
17%
Yes
No
August 31
7%
Yes
No
$5.7M Vol.
+ Combo
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
Chance
54%
Yes
54¢
No
46¢
$826K Vol.
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
September 30
8%
Yes
No
August 31
4%
Yes
No
$141K Vol.
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
4%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$147K Vol.
+ Combo
Trump out as President before 2027?
Chance
8%
Yes
8¢
No
93¢
$10.3M Vol.
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 31
13%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$1.3M Vol.
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
11%
Yes
No
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
7%
Yes
No
UNRWA
5%
Yes
No
Pope Leo XIV
4%
Yes
No
$23.0M Vol.
+ Combo
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
Chance
7%
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$271K Vol.
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
66%
Yes
No
October 31
56%
Yes
No
August 31
30%
Yes
No
July 31
2%
Yes
No
$1.4M Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by...?
December 31
56%
Yes
No
September 30
20%
Yes
No
$898K Vol.
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$507K Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 31
23%
Yes
No
September 30
12%
Yes
No
August 31
6%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$6.1M Vol.
European military action against Iran by...?
August 31
5%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$205K Vol.
Who will Trump meet with in July?
Elon Musk
3%
Yes
No
Mohammed bin Salman
1%
Yes
No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Yes
No
Miguel Díaz-Canel
0%
Yes
No
$400K Vol.
+ Combo
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Chance
5%
Yes
5¢
No
95¢
$11.6M Vol.
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8
41%
Yes
No
9
35%
Yes
No
10
11%
Yes
No
11
7%
Yes
No
$1.6M Vol.
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
July 31
34%
Yes
No
$133K Vol.
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31
70%
Yes
No
China
15%
Yes
No
Russia
5%
Yes
No
United States
3%
Yes
No
$264K Vol.
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin Salman
67%
Yes
No
Delcy Rodríguez
33%
Yes
No
Vladimir Putin
33%
Yes
No
Aleksandr Lukashenko
26%
Yes
No
$747K Vol.
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31
56%
Yes
No
September 30
14%
Yes
No
$2.8M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31
22%
Yes
No
October 31
12%
Yes
No
$926K Vol.
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 31
4%
Yes
No
$466K Vol.
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