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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 31
3%
Yes
No
$130K Vol.
Will Russia capture Sumy by...?
March 31, 2027
7%
Yes
No
$823K Vol.
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-20
98%
Yes
No
20-40
2%
Yes
No
40-60
1%
Yes
No
60-80
0%
Yes
No
$294K Vol.
+ Combo
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Chance
13%
Yes
13¢
No
88¢
$2.2M Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31
50%
Yes
No
September 30
11%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$1.0M Vol.
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?
December 31
3%
Yes
No
September 30
2%
Yes
No
$1.1M Vol.
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
6%
Yes
No
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$76K Vol.
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
United States
4%
Yes
No
United Kingdom
1%
Yes
No
France
1%
Yes
No
Italy
1%
Yes
No
$500K Vol.
+ Combo
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Chance
25%
Yes
25¢
No
75¢
$1.4M Vol.
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
47%
Yes
No
5
33%
Yes
No
6
9%
Yes
No
7
2%
Yes
No
$7.4M Vol.
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
December 31
15%
Yes
No
$711K Vol.
Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
December 31, 2026
8%
Yes
No
$5.3M Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...?
December 31
9%
Yes
No
$641K Vol.
Ukraine election called by...?
December 31, 2026
13%
Yes
No
August 31, 2026
4%
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
+ Combo
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Chance
8%
Yes
8¢
No
93¢
$2.8M Vol.
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 31
64%
Yes
No
August 15
40%
Yes
No
July 31
14%
Yes
No
$303K Vol.
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia
75%
Yes
No
Druzkhivka
41%
Yes
No
Kramatorsk
20%
Yes
No
Sloviansk
18%
Yes
No
$615K Vol.
Russia nuclear test by...?
December 31, 2026
7%
Yes
No
September 30, 2026
2%
Yes
No
$6.1M Vol.
Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 31
36%
Yes
No
July 31
5%
Yes
No
$182K Vol.
+ Combo
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Chance
1%
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$1.4M Vol.
+ Combo
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Chance
8%
Yes
8¢
No
92¢
$211K Vol.
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Ireland
93%
Yes
No
Germany
38%
Yes
No
Saudi Arabia
28%
Yes
No
Israel
23%
Yes
No
$606K Vol.
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by...?
December 31
53%
Yes
No
September 30
10%
Yes
No
$51K Vol.
+ Combo
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Chance
10%
Yes
10¢
No
91¢
$389K Vol.
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