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All Geopolitics
Geopolitics
24 events
Events
+ Combo
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
Chance
10%
Yes
10¢
No
91¢
$389K Vol.
+ Combo
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?
Chance
4%
Yes
4¢
No
96¢
$210K Vol.
US strike on Colombia by...?
December 31
24%
Yes
No
$2.1M Vol.
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
3%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$55K Vol.
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 31
10%
Yes
No
$3.5M Vol.
Will Russia capture Bilytske by...?
December 31
70%
Yes
No
September 30
43%
Yes
No
August 31
21%
Yes
No
$292K Vol.
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by...?
December 31
4%
Yes
No
$186K Vol.
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
August 31
17%
Yes
No
July 31
1%
Yes
No
$58K Vol.
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
46%
Yes
No
December
14%
Yes
No
September
10%
Yes
No
August
10%
Yes
No
$151K Vol.
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 28
26%
Yes
No
August 26
18%
Yes
No
August 13
16%
Yes
No
August 22
14%
Yes
No
$60K Vol.
+ Combo
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Chance
5%
Yes
5¢
No
96¢
$10.5M Vol.
Will Russia enter Serhiivka by...?
December 31
77%
Yes
No
July 31
3%
Yes
No
$148K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
Chance
1%
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$41K Vol.
Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Venezuela
21%
Yes
No
Lebanon
16%
Yes
No
Saudi Arabia
14%
Yes
No
Indonesia
10%
Yes
No
$342K Vol.
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 31
0%
Yes
No
$10.0M Vol.
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 2026
17%
Yes
No
$2.1M Vol.
+ Combo
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Chance
22%
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$2.5M Vol.
+ Combo
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Chance
7%
Yes
7¢
No
93¢
$3.1M Vol.
US x Russia military clash by...?
December 31, 2026
5%
Yes
No
$1.8M Vol.
+ Combo
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Chance
35%
Yes
35¢
No
65¢
$259K Vol.
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
August 31
33%
Yes
No
July 31
5%
Yes
No
$97K Vol.
+ Combo
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Chance
13%
Yes
13¢
No
87¢
$1.6M Vol.
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake
88%
Yes
No
Photographed only
7%
Yes
No
2–6s
4%
Yes
No
<2s
4%
Yes
No
$35K Vol.
Venezuela presidential election scheduled by...?
December 31
19%
Yes
No
$601K Vol.
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