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All Science
Science
24 events
Events
+ Combo
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Chance
9%
Yes
9¢
No
91¢
$139K Vol.
+ Combo
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Chance
11%
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$15K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Chance
3%
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
$194K Vol.
+ Combo
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Chance
60%
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$120K Vol.
+ Combo
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Chance
94%
Yes
94¢
No
6¢
$147K Vol.
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
<40
25%
Yes
No
60-79
25%
Yes
No
80-99
24%
Yes
No
100–119
24%
Yes
No
$566 Vol.
+ Combo
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Chance
11%
Yes
11¢
No
89¢
$179K Vol.
Precipitation in London in July?
<30mm
99%
Yes
No
30-40mm
1%
Yes
No
70-80mm
1%
Yes
No
40-50mm
0%
Yes
No
$12K Vol.
+ Combo
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Chance
1%
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$116K Vol.
+ Combo
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Chance
23%
Yes
23¢
No
78¢
$335K Vol.
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+
40%
Yes
No
<425mm
28%
Yes
No
650-700mm
25%
Yes
No
450-475mm
24%
Yes
No
$262 Vol.
+ Combo
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
Chance
26%
Yes
26¢
No
74¢
$311K Vol.
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
0
66%
Yes
No
1
17%
Yes
No
2
4%
Yes
No
4
1%
Yes
No
$1.2M Vol.
Cyclosporiasis cases in U.S. by August 31?
10,000+
81%
Yes
No
20,000+
40%
Yes
No
15,000+
39%
Yes
No
$111 Vol.
Precipitation in London in August?
<30mm
33%
Yes
No
30-40mm
28%
Yes
No
70-80mm
24%
Yes
No
40-50mm
23%
Yes
No
$91 Vol.
Precipitation in NYC in August?
>6"
40%
Yes
No
5-6"
35%
Yes
No
2-3"
34%
Yes
No
4-5"
34%
Yes
No
$78 Vol.
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC
26%
Yes
No
1.20–1.24ºC
23%
Yes
No
1.10–1.14ºC
21%
Yes
No
1.25–1.29ºC
19%
Yes
No
$20 Vol.
2026 August 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest
49%
Yes
No
3rd hottest
46%
Yes
No
2nd hottest
45%
Yes
No
4th or lower
45%
Yes
No
$3 Vol.
Precipitation in Seoul in July?
100mm+
100%
Yes
No
<40mm
0%
Yes
No
40-50mm
0%
Yes
No
50-60mm
0%
Yes
No
$13K Vol.
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?
December 31, 2028
40%
Yes
No
December 31, 2027
39%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
16%
Yes
No
$231 Vol.
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6
66%
Yes
No
<5
20%
Yes
No
7-8
11%
Yes
No
9-10
2%
Yes
No
$490K Vol.
+ Combo
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Chance
19%
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
$101K Vol.
Precipitation in Seattle in August?
<0.5"
39%
Yes
No
>3"
39%
Yes
No
0.5-1"
35%
Yes
No
1-1.5"
26%
Yes
No
$0 Vol.
+ Combo
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
Chance
98%
Yes
98¢
No
2¢
$11K Vol.
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