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Tech
24 events
Events
Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Alibaba
55%
Yes
No
Tencent
21%
Yes
No
Meituan
20%
Yes
No
DeepSeek
14%
Yes
No
$13K Vol.
Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
8–11B
35%
Yes
No
17–20B
21%
Yes
No
<5B
17%
Yes
No
No IPO by December 31, 2027
14%
Yes
No
$20K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Chance
97%
Yes
97¢
No
3¢
$163K Vol.
Which company has the best Text Arena Coding AI model end of July?
Anthropic
99%
Yes
No
Alibaba
0%
Yes
No
Moonshot
0%
Yes
No
OpenAI
0%
Yes
No
$44K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Chance
22%
Yes
22¢
No
78¢
$137K Vol.
+ Combo
Human moon landing in 2026?
Chance
1%
Yes
1¢
No
99¢
$2.0M Vol.
+ Combo
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Chance
11%
Yes
11¢
No
90¢
$91K Vol.
AI data center in space by...?
December 31, 2027
25%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
3%
Yes
No
$32K Vol.
Highest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
60%+
60%
Yes
No
65%+
31%
Yes
No
80%+
27%
Yes
No
70%+
16%
Yes
No
$9K Vol.
Which company has second best AI model end of July?
Anthropic
99%
Yes
No
Alibaba
1%
Yes
No
Google
0%
Yes
No
OpenAI
0%
Yes
No
$80K Vol.
How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?
16-19
28%
Yes
No
20-23
17%
Yes
No
24-27
17%
Yes
No
12-15
11%
Yes
No
$13K Vol.
What will be said on the next All-In Podcast? (July 31)
Anthropic 3+ times
97%
Yes
No
Software
95%
Yes
No
China / Chinese
93%
Yes
No
Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times
88%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
Next Kimi K model released by…?
September 30, 2026
95%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
94%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
Highest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
55%+
63%
Yes
No
60%+
39%
Yes
No
65%+
17%
Yes
No
70%+
6%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
HotSchedules
85%
Yes
No
Shadowrocket
9%
Yes
No
SkyView
5%
Yes
No
TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome
1%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
+ Combo
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?
Chance
18%
Yes
18¢
No
83¢
$24K Vol.
Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
99%
Yes
No
OpenAI
0%
Yes
No
Google
0%
Yes
No
xAI
0%
Yes
No
$127K Vol.
Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?
C3.ai
35%
Yes
No
Lucid
34%
Yes
No
Workhorse
30%
Yes
No
Beyond Meat
26%
Yes
No
$220K Vol.
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
OpenAI
30%
Yes
No
Google
24%
Yes
No
Moonshot
13%
Yes
No
xAI
13%
Yes
No
$85K Vol.
What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (July 29)
Think
98%
Yes
No
Time
96%
Yes
No
Problem
96%
Yes
No
Different
95%
Yes
No
$2K Vol.
#1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
Shadowrocket
96%
Yes
No
HotSchedules
37%
Yes
No
Parchment: Agenda & Daily Note
2%
Yes
No
TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome
1%
Yes
No
$2K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
Chance
60%
Yes
60¢
No
41¢
$164K Vol.
Which company has the #2 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
98%
Yes
No
Meta
1%
Yes
No
OpenAI
1%
Yes
No
xAI
0%
Yes
No
$65K Vol.
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?
Anthropic
46%
Yes
No
Microsoft
38%
Yes
No
Google
36%
Yes
No
Alibaba
30%
Yes
No
$4K Vol.
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