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Tech
24 events
Events
Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?
Anthropic
41%
Yes
No
Alibaba
39%
Yes
No
Google
36%
Yes
No
Microsoft
33%
Yes
No
$4K Vol.
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?
Xiaomi
35%
Yes
No
DeepSeek
35%
Yes
No
OpenAI
34%
Yes
No
Alibaba
27%
Yes
No
$3K Vol.
+ Combo
US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
Chance
19%
Yes
19¢
No
81¢
$13K Vol.
How much will the iPhone 18 Pro cost?
$1100+
97%
Yes
No
$1000+
84%
Yes
No
$1200+
78%
Yes
No
$1300+
13%
Yes
No
$8K Vol.
Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?
December 31, 2026
34%
Yes
No
October 31, 2026
22%
Yes
No
$270K Vol.
+ Combo
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
Chance
24%
Yes
24¢
No
76¢
$2K Vol.
Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
Anthropic
99%
Yes
No
Meta
1%
Yes
No
Google
1%
Yes
No
OpenAI
0%
Yes
No
$43K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
Chance
30%
Yes
30¢
No
70¢
$66K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Apple purchase memory CXMT chips in 2026?
Chance
33%
Yes
33¢
No
67¢
$10K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
Chance
56%
Yes
56¢
No
44¢
$37K Vol.
Highest Kimi score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
45%+
54%
Yes
No
55%+
39%
Yes
No
50%+
31%
Yes
No
60%+
30%
Yes
No
$4K Vol.
+ Combo
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Chance
83%
Yes
83¢
No
18¢
$109K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
Chance
30%
Yes
30¢
No
71¢
$302K Vol.
Next Claude Opus released by...?
December 31
88%
Yes
No
October 31
65%
Yes
No
August 31
11%
Yes
No
$1K Vol.
SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?
June 30, 2027
83%
Yes
No
December 31, 2026
35%
Yes
No
August 31, 2026
2%
Yes
No
$6K Vol.
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by...?
July 31
9%
Yes
No
$408K Vol.
What will Elon post this week? (July 27 - August 2)
Tesla
79%
Yes
No
Energy
57%
Yes
No
Video game / Videogame
56%
Yes
No
President
56%
Yes
No
$5K Vol.
#1 Searched Actor on Google 2026?
Sarah Pidgeon
28%
Yes
No
Kate Hudson
11%
Yes
No
Milly Alcock
10%
Yes
No
Ioan Gruffudd
10%
Yes
No
$9K Vol.
+ Combo
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
Chance
3%
Yes
3¢
No
97¢
$578K Vol.
GPU rental prices (H200) end of 2026?
$4.00-$4.50
30%
Yes
No
$5.50-$6.00
16%
Yes
No
$4.50-$5.00
15%
Yes
No
$5.00-$5.50
10%
Yes
No
$8K Vol.
+ Combo
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
Chance
56%
Yes
56¢
No
45¢
$60K Vol.
#1 Searched Passings on Google 2026?
Ali Khamenei
30%
Yes
No
Chuck Norris
20%
Yes
No
Sam Neill
10%
Yes
No
Jesse Jackson
10%
Yes
No
$29K Vol.
+ Combo
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Chance
57%
Yes
57¢
No
43¢
$8K Vol.
+ Combo
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Chance
60%
Yes
60¢
No
40¢
$120K Vol.
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